Both when the CBOE future expired and today, when the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there was a considerable decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would estimate that they’re dominated by a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most probably short the long run and possibly long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the costs are low where you can border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes which are an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a young having a really small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless of low quality, VWAP for the four major exchanges may be beneficial, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on such a brief period is incredibly limited. Regardless if many large participants could have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d probably have the identical position and benefits from exactly the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over hrs instead). The conclusion is that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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