Both if the CBOE future expired now, when the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there is an important loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and I would estimate that they’re dominated by a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex trading maker is most probably short the longer term and possibly long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the price is low this will let you border after settlement when the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which might be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a young having a very small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is better, but still lower, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on such a brief time period is very limited. Even though many large participants may have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d most likely have the same position and benefits from the same side from the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over several hours instead). The final outcome is we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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