We’ve been closely watching the Crypto Currency forex market if you can refer to it that, with all the current fake data, fraud, and related problems. One thing stands apart – it is not so different than FX, commodities, futures, or stocks. Market dynamics are market dynamics. And since several readers on this fine site will know already – nearly all traders lose. There’s been analysis done for this, we all know how this ends. A few early investors create a bundle and thousands or millions even remain holding the bag. From one perspective, a bubble is much like a ponzi scheme. In MLM, there are a few who amass wealth – the founders.
Unless you are the founder – can you be sure which Crypto will be the subsequent Bitcoin? You don’t. You have no idea. You can go to Korea and do all the due diligence you would like, the fact remains that it’s impossible to understand the future or even a top analyst might be wrong at times.
Quant traders have a similar doctrine each of them share – they’re smart enough to know how stupid they may be. They know their unique flaws and they undergo a higher power- that’s Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power is currently so massive it is entirely possible that everyone can using their home office create a smart trading plan that does well. Of course, just like the laws of market dynamics, you may also produce a robot which is worth exactly zero – a large pile of crap. When a quant makes an algorithm it’s either priceless or worthless. If it functions, he’s effectively made a wealth creation machine. If it won’t work, there is absolutely no value to anyone not even academics.
How do we know what method works, how to build a working bot or buy one? There are obvious conflicts appealing in people that sell bots. The internet may be dominated by good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly maintain their strategies to themselves. Selling a product or service, and trading a robotic, are really 2 different skills.
Crypto to date has shown similar to most markets: impossible to trade.
Although are kicking themselves because of buying and holding, I will tell you like a trader and that i speak for several inside the room that there is no chance I would also have the patience by sitting on a hugely profitable position for several years whilst the price goes parabolic.
That’s why quants develop and trade algorithms – picking entries and exits can be brain-destroying. There are dangers and risks with robots too naturally, but they’re of the different nature.
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