Both once the CBOE future expired and after this, if the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there were an amazing reduction in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would reckon that they’re covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is most likely short the future and possibly long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the prices are low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which are an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a young which has a very small volume usually.
CME’s model is way better, however not very good, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a great idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on a real brief period is quite limited. Even if many large participants would have interests in a of those settlement processes they’d most likely have a similar position and gains advantage from the identical side of the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over several hours instead). The final outcome is the fact that we likely will see a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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