This really is dedicated to individuals who wish to invest in individual stocks. I has shared with you the ways I have used through the years to choose stocks which i have discovered to be consistently profitable in actual trading. I love to utilize a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis for picking stocks. My experience has shown that successful stock selection involves two steps:
1. Select a stock using the fundamental analysis presented then
2. Confirm that the stock is surely an uptrend as indicated by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average Line (EMA) being above the 100-Day EMA
This two-step process boosts the odds that the stock you decide on will likely be profitable. It offers an indication to sell stock which has not performed needlessly to say if it’s 50-Day EMA drops below its 100-Day EMA. It is a useful way of selecting stocks for covered call writing, a different sort of strategy.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is the study of economic data including earnings, dividends and your money flow, which influence the pricing of securities. I use fundamental analysis to help select securities for future price appreciation. Over recent years I have used many methods for measuring a company’s growth rate to try to predict its stock’s future price performance. I manipulate methods including earnings growth and return on equity. I have discovered why these methods usually are not always reliable or predictive.
Earning Growth
By way of example, corporate net income is at the mercy of vague bookkeeping practices including depreciation, cashflow, inventory adjustment and reserves. These are all at the mercy of interpretation by accountants. Today inside your, corporations are under increasing pressure to beat analyst’s earnings estimates which ends up in more aggressive accounting interpretations. Some corporations take special “one time” write-offs on the balance sheet for specific things like failed mergers or acquisitions, restructuring, unprofitable divisions, failed developing the site, etc. Many times these write-offs usually are not reflected as being a continue earnings growth but alternatively arrive as being a footnote on a financial report. These “one time” write-offs occur with an increase of frequency than you may expect. Many companies which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average took such write-offs.
Return on Equity
Another popular indicator, which i’ve found isn’t necessarily predictive of stock price appreciation, is return on equity (ROE). Conventional wisdom correlates a higher return on equity with successful corporate management that is maximizing shareholder value (the better the ROE better).
Recognise the business is much more successful?
Coca-Cola (KO) using a Return on Equity of 46% or
Merrill Lynch (MER) using a Return on Equity of 18%
The reply is Merrill Lynch by measure. But Coca-Cola features a much higher ROE. How are these claims possible?
Return on equity is calculated by dividing a company’s net profit by stockholder’s equity. Coca-Cola is so over valued what has stockholder’s equity is merely equal to about 5% from the total market price from the company. The stockholder equity is so small that just about anywhere of net profit will develop a favorable ROE.
Merrill Lynch on the other hand, has stockholder’s equity equal to 42% from the market price from the company and requires a much higher net profit figure to produce a comparable ROE. My point is that ROE doesn’t compare apples to apples then is not an good relative indicator in comparing company performance.
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